Embracing and Communicating Uncertainty
I am hesitant to blog about the hurricane ripping through the Mid-Atlantic, especially while I'm sitting comfortably safe and warm, six time zones away. I've read too many sad stories already and seen, electronically, too much destruction to want to drain the moment of its significance, its discomforts, and too often its tragedies. To my friends in the path, and every one else: I hope you're experiencing a speedy recovery. Sandy's Cone of Uncertainty, National Weather Service Still I think it is appropriate to notice the success of the National Weather Service and its associated forecasters. Without their efforts, and subsequent evacuations, many more people might have been been killed or injured. One key to that success, according to Nate Silver , is the NWS's embrace of uncertainty, its frank acknowledgement of error, and its skepticism of its own models. The "cone of uncertainty," above, exemplifies the NWS ethos and makes it public. Instead of simple t...